Nora is coming. It will be big. I will probably die, if not during, in the short term afterwards.

My health is failing. My ship is badly damaged and cannot survive a hurricane much less another month in the water. Even if I survive, any damage to my ship or belongings will be insurmountable for me, as no damage at all will be because my SSDI payments stopped because the Federal Benefits Unit here in Mexico deliberately sabotaged my benefits. I have evidence for all of my claims. I do not publish anything I do not know to be true. I have been my own lawyer for more than 10 years.

I need to not be invisible. These people are getting away with what they are doing because they censor and hide behind concepts such as antisemitism (I hadn't even entertained the concept until I got here, now I most definitely understand the conspiracy theories, just look up Malcolm Neil Shroyer Schoen and note his influence.

I will not be killed by these people.

Good luck to all of you, unless you're one of the assholes that is.


PS: If you don't like my forecasts, go ahead and continue to rely on the NHC. Yes, they were, so far, more correct in their forecast than I was this time, THIS TIME. How about next time?

Read the link below to find out how the NHC says "we don't know what the fuck is going on."

It's an interesting read.


Nora is anyone's guess at this point. It is a double system alternating between having two centers around each other and concentric to each other. Because of this, the immediate steering direction of the storm cannot possibly be predicted. What I read from looking at the latest SSTs, assuming they are accurate, is that Nora is following the 28deg contour westward and would have to jump across cooler water to get back to 28 in order to head north to the peninsula.

At this point, I do not see Nora coming to La Paz, but I am not at all saying it cannot.

My forecast update then is to prepare for the possibility of a strong hurricane coming to La Paz as soon as Monday night.

My feeling, my personal prediction based on my instincts, is that the storm will head west of the peninsula, not even threatening the mainland south of Guadalajara.

I have been tracking this disturbance since before Grace cross the mainland. My tracking, until this morning, put the storm safely west of the peninsula, but NHC has forecast its track up the Pacific side of the peninsula. I am fairly certain the storm will track west of where the NHC forecast says it will go, but I'm going to be cautious and suggest that Nora could possibly come to La Paz by Monday morning as a high as a Category 3 hurricane!

I will continue to follow this storm, while I am making preparations.

For the record, I do not know if I will survive any storms as my ship is in dire need of repair and my body is in just as bad shape because of multiple hernias.

It looks as though remnants of Grace are no longer going to safely head south of the cape as has been the appearance up to this point, as such, I am now monitoring Grace as it appears on course to hit Cabo San Lucas.

At this point, motion appears to put this storm on track to hit the peninsula on a northwest trajectory at Cabo or San Jose and continue northwest, grazing La Paz with outer bands.

This is of course entirely dependent upon formation after the system crosses mainland Mexico into the Pacific. The system developed extremely quickly in the Gulf of Campeche and could form just as fast (from 35kt to 90kt in 6 hours!)

Expect that there could be a tropical storm, perhaps even a hurricane, possibly affecting La Paz in the next three days.

I am officially calling and naming this storm as it has continued to maintain circulation and is now showing signs of strengthening and developing further. But that development will be occurring in the sea just below Cabo and thus we will have no more than two days warning of what could be a major hurricane if upper level conditions are suited for such rapid development.

Note: the most difficult aspect of forecasting tropical weather is where the system will go. This is because you have a system moving of it's own volition, as well as the influences around it including the multiple air masses which can affect its movement. These influences all have an affect on the system both in the moment, as well as in the future. These in turn influence each other and are influenced by other air masses. The movements of these air masses is somewhat visible and predictable via satellite images, but even supercomputers have difficult predicting how these influences will affect the movement of a tropical system. I do not have the benefit, nor limitation, of such computers or models. But neither am I able to perfectly predict such movements. I do the best job I can. But my forecast methodology is strictly selfish and therefore would benefit anyone in my immediate area, as I don't care where the storm goes, I only care whether or not it will affect me.

Having said that, I believe Marty will come to the peninsula around Cabo San Lucas or perhaps even as far east as San Jose del Cabo. But the system will then move westward. This is unless a system pushing westward dissapates in which case, Marty could become the worst case scenario for the Sea of Cortez, and go straight up the Sea in what look to be ideal conditions for development of a major hurricane.

I am personally scared, especially because this system is not being forecast. I do not believe it can develop fast enough to become a major hurricane affecting La Paz, but it is entirely possible and no one will know it until it hits Cabo.

I will continue to monitor the storm.

I am still following the very small disturbance that has continued to maintain a small area of circulation and developing storms running along the coast of Mexico north of the Gulf of Tohanopec.

This system may yet affect La Paz though I do believe it will remain west of La Paz.

The system does not appear to be large enough or of low enough pressure to merit forecast by the NHC. However; I do not share the forecast methodologies and reasoning of the NHC, I am concerned with my safety. As such, I am monitoring this disturbance and will continue to update this forecast as long as the system can potentially threaten La Paz.

I believe that once again the NHC is making an error in their forecasting of a tropical storm in that they have publicly stated and shown the system not affecting Hawaii when in fact there is a good chance it could.

The forecast linked below ("related link") should show a cone including Hawaii and include the warning that if the system does follow the sea surface temperature contours as they have been shown to, that the system would not only steer towards and over the Hawaiian islands, but would retain more of its strength and possibly strengthen relative to its present status.

I am noting on the satellite that starting at 0815UTC the eye of Linda hooked quickly northwestward; but only briefly as 0945, Linda was bearing due west again. While I do not know the precise coordinates of these events, they do seem to correspond to the contours of the latest SST image provided by the NHC website. This is not to say that it did follow the contour and thus that it will, but if it does, it puts a Hurricane Linda on track to strike Hawaii with full storm surge and at least Category 2 hurricane conditions.

This of course does not affect La Paz. I feel obligated to post this in case anyone who reads this has friends or family in Hawaii they can warn, especially if they are on the western or northern shores of the big island. It is also posted in order to demonstrate the error in the National Hurricane Center's forecasting methodology, as I have had the unfortunate pleasure of demonstrating to them each year since 2015.

Again, my own amendment to the NHC's present forecast for Linda would expand the cone to include Hawaii and demonstrate retention of strength and possible increase relative to present strength which at the time of forecast was 105mph winds. This means that I am predicting that Hawaii could be directly affected by a stronger system than the NHC currently predicts could not affect directly Hawaii per their visual forecast.

It appears I must go ahead and present a forecast for the potential affecting of La Paz by remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Grace.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting Grace to potentially cross the Mexico mainland and head in the general direction of La Paz. Per the NHC's forecast, we could see the effects of Grace as soon as Monday or Tuesday of next week.

I am myself unaware of even the potential for Grace to cross the peninsula and affect La Paz. I see no reason to doubt the NHC's forecast which does not yet extend past the mainland for their five day forecast for Grace. I do not believe Grace could survive sufficiently to achieve upwelling from the Sea of Cortez. If the system survives and given its present form and the atmospheric conditions, threat of real tropical weather beyond just a depression is minimal.

I am however keeping an eye on the situation.

I am making a preliminary forecast for what I expect could be hurricane Marty.

An area of circulation off the Gulf of Tohanapec follows a compressed tropical wave. This hasn't been caught by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) yet, but I am calling it because it has every potential of hitting La Paz.

If this system forms, it is moving slow enough through conditions suitable enough to support hurricane formation. The system appears to me to be on a course that would put it on the pacific side of the peninsula, which could evolve into a path leading it towards La Paz. As I am only concerned with forecasting for my own location, La Paz, I am suggesting that there is a possibility of a tropical disturbance affecting La Paz within the next 4-7 days, most likely around 6 days from now.

Update 17 August 5am:

The system that could become Marty is the result of a very small tropical wave which while there is some apparent organization, it does not appear to be strong enough to be able to gather strength, thus it is not on the NHC's radar so to speak, that is, they are not forecasting it as a potential system.

I will delete or rename this post if Marty never even starts to develop.

Remnants of a band of Kevin are crossing the peninsula south of La Paz and could bring monsoonal storms to La Paz today.

I expect a bit more of the same as yesterday, possibly intense but short-lived thunderstorms directly over La Paz. Any winds will be local and of a downdraft nature similar to last week's spectacular event which I witnessed firsthand as it happened, came to the construction sites and picked up dust, then went over the anchorage.

These strong winds are of course a concern as are the potential for flash flooding. Water in the bay is now highly toxic due to runoff from yesterday's rains though the peak tide will clear it out unless there is more rain in the next days.

Prepare for the possibility of more intense storms. I am ready for them but expect just slightly stronger than yesterday's rain shower.

Guillermo has presented enough to give me a better idea of where it could go, and north is not one of those directions.

La Paz will not be affected by Guillermo unless conditions change drastically.

I am posting a preliminary forecast for the coming tropical storm which will be named Guillermo in an abundance of precaution and because of the speed with which the system is developing and potentially moving towards the Baja Peninsula.

At this time, all factors support rapid development of this system and potential travel of the system to La Paz. This is not to say that is where I believe the system will go, but that I believe the system could come to La Paz. I forecast here for possible worst case scenario.

Worst case with Guillermo I believe is upwards of a Category 5 hurricane, though that would require extraordinary circumstances. But that potential is there, and any potential preparations you might want to make, should be made now.

I do not yet know what Guillermo is going to do, or even if it will form and become a named storm. I believe it will, and I believe it will not follow Felicia, but go more north, following warmer waters and the general direction of upper level winds which are presently going northeast but balanced against momentum towards the west. How much the warmer waters and upper level winds steer Guillermo is unknown to me at this time.

Again, a preliminary forecast out of an abundance of precaution. Guillermo has ever potential to hit La Paz, and hard, within two weeks. Keep an eye on the weather, and plan accordingly.

Enrique has performed a worst case and appears to be headed directly for La Paz. Except, it isn't an organized tropical system of any significant power. It appears to be causing storms to develop on the peninsula ahead of the center of circulation, or the circulation is heavily skewed from top to bottom. It's hard to tell with the resolution of imagery I am left with thanks to the gutting of America's academia of contributors.

I don't expect much. I've been through many tropical systems, including being through the eye of a system much stronger than this (Javier I believe). I expect gusty and variable winds from random directions, thunderstorms, and maybe a bit of a storm surge, but that's about it. Everything will be mild.


Update:

I am actually having trouble seeing where the center of circulation of the system is. The center of the clouds forming is south of La Paz and over land. The apparent lower level circulation appears to be over the sea south of San Jose del Cabo, and is what is causing the clouds to form and rain to fall on La Paz. But there is also evidence of circulation east of La Paz in the Sea of Cortez, which is where the NHC says the center of circulation is.

I am keeping an eye on the barometer, which isn't moving so far.

Enrique is presently southeast of La Paz having started across the Sea of Cortez. It is going to come ashore at about Los Barrilles and scoot across in a west northwesterly direction with the center of circulation crossing back into the pacific about due west of La Paz.

There is every possibility the center of rotation could hit the bay of La Paz, which is where I am anchored. This will produce intense winds of varying direction and velocity but no more than 35 knots. It is more likely that interaction with land will disintegrate any remnants of the storm and it's capability to affect La Paz.

The lack of warm enough water, moisture, and calm upper level winds means what's left of Enrique will be an inconvenience at worst.

Goodnight.

Enrique's wind field appears to be sustaining itself. The wind field looks like it could affect La Paz, giving us gusty winds from the NNE at first, then the north. It has begun moving rapidly and I expect it to move through in less than 24 hours. But, I am taking down shadecloth and securing loose items in anticipation of a nice bit of harvesting wind energy.

Prepare for a day of wind and otherwise enough some nice cool and relatively dry weather. For those at anchor, remember the current isn't as strong, but check your ground tackle anyway.