Update 20 Sep 12:36PDT: Odalys has already turned and is heading slowly north. It is likely that it will soon be heading towards Mexico but what happens remains to be seen. There is every potential this system could threaten the Baja peninsula. I will carefully monitor this system.

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Here it is, the first tropical storm to potentially threaten Baja.

Odalys formed from a tropical wave which already formed a system. Odalys is forming despite high sheer and promises to develop and become a full hurricane, and likely major.

The NHC is calling for Odalys to stall and change direction by Tuesday. It appears to already to be making that right hand turn and the sheering winds are shifting strongly north behind the system and catching up to it which should meet up with it later today rather than late Monday.

Where it goes from there is of concern and I will be paying close attention to this storm as well as subsequent systems as they form and potentially threaten the Baja peninsula.

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