Update 19 Sep 0717 PDT: The system remains unorganized and appears that it could head towards the Sea of Cortez. My guess, from the path taken by the north end of the same tropical wave, that the storm will head towards the mainland, possibly towards Topolobampo or Mazatlan.

If it does it will remain disorganized and clear out further accumulated tropical energy, making further thunderstorms less likely. It does not necessarily clear things for tropical storms however as those are fed by the sea surface temperature when it is above 26degC.

Keep an eye on this system if you are in the southern Sea of Cortez, especially the mainland.


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Update 19 Sep 02:31 PDT: The system south of Mexico is heading north now, but the sheer is far too high still for formation. I will keep my eyes on it because if something does form it is likely to head towards the Sea of Cortez.


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I am monitoring the nursery for tropical storms that could affect the Sea of Cortez. As of now, a system is forming south of Mexico that the NHC is saying will go north, but this system is at a margin between northbound and westbound air masses and I believe it will head west instead of north. However; if it does head north it could affect the Sea of Cortez so I will pay close attention to this system.

We are still in a paradigm where storms could affect the peninsula however I doubt that any storms will affect anywhere north of La Paz from here on out. The history of storms shows a tendency towards more southerly trajectories. The storms which have hit the peninsula north of La Paz all happened earlier than now in the year. Odile hit about this time of year but spawned far north of where anything is spawning right now.

But, my guesses are just that, guesses.

I will report the facts as I see them.

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