Rachel isn't going where the NHC says it will go, and they are working really hard to make it go where they want it to go but they are failing miserably.

I don't know why, but the NHC consistently gets the forecast wrong for the Sea of Cortez and Baja peninsula, as if they are deliberately trying to endanger people's lives. But the more likely explanation is that they are just so arrogant and insistent about being right that they jeopardize your lives in their effort to be seen as right. So your approval is more important than your safety. Which is precisely why I maintain this blog and correct the NHC's forecasts.

Right now, interests in Cabo and southern BCS need to keep an eye on this storm. It is not heading out to sea, and likely will not because steering forces from sea surface temperatures favor staying to the right or straight ahead, which puts it on course to make landfall around Cabo San Lucas.

I also wanted to comment on the operator of "Escape Velocity" who tried to MOTOR to Bahia Los Angeles instead of sailing, and forgot to make sure he had enough fuel. These are sailboats, and I called the guy an operator instead of a sailor or captain because he is neither. He is a fool who almost got himself killed and definitely got a LOT of people worried and spending money and time searching for him because he couldn't even setup solar panels to make sure he aways had power for the radio. If you happen to read this, you should have stayed where you are. What you did was a LOT riskier than waiting for a hurricane to cross a mountain range before heading to Guaymas.

Stop being fools.

As to Sea of Cortez weather, we are done with thunderstorms in the central sea of Cortez. Weather is still warm but far, far drier. I cannot say the same for up north where thunderstorms are still likely because there likely remains a lot of humidity up there. The southern sea is subject to tropical weather still and thus Thunderstorms are still possible from tropical storms or tropical waves.

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