Update 20:50 Polo appears to be steering slightly right of the NHC forecast track due to the motion of the ridge steering it (a high pressure system itself rotating. What this has done is reversed the slight nudge given to the left by Odalys.

We will know more about where the hurricane will make landfall when it comes close to Cabo San Lazaro. Right now it is forecast to pass but it is steering closer now.

This is potentially good news for Guaymas.


Update 17:30:

Fuck you.

I helped everyone here at this marina and when we needed help there was none.

So, fuck you. You can figure out what the storm is doing yourselves. Until I am better treated, no more hurricane weather.


Update 06:47: Polo is still drifting to the left of forecast track and it is due to influence of Odalys. In sattelite imagery you can see the clouds of Odalys stripped away in the direction of Polo at the last moment. The question is, how much has Polo been affected and how much more will it.

This remains a dynamic situation. I will keep an eye on it. You should do the same.

.....


Polo has been drifting to the left, even of the NHC forecast due to slight interaction with Odalys. From what I can tell, the systems are not going to interact strongly and all that is going to happen is to bend Polo's track a little to the left. I cannot tell if the interaction is going to be strong.

Odalys has stopped its forward momentum and is diminishing, but significant momentum remains in updraft and suction. Polo has drifted to the left but its very hard to tell how much so relative to the forecast track because the forecast turn is also underway.

This is a very critical time for the storm and I probably will not get much sleep in the next 4 hours for my anxiety, as if Polo is drawn torwards Odalys, that puts its track closer to my location. At a minimum, this has brought the track closer to Mulege with the promise of horrific flooding of centro due to storm surge, high tide, and winds blowing onshore. If you are in Mulege, seek higher ground both from storm surge and flooding. This system will be bringing tons of rain. This assume the storm crosses south of Mulege. If it crosses north, they know what to expect from Jimena.

The problem is can Odalys pull Polo further left. I will keep a close on this and you will likely know before having read this. If it can pull it more than it is being steered to the right, it could take its track to Santa Rosalia or even further north, or even up to San Diego.

Keep a close eye on this system. It is not going to go where it was forecast and its landfall location is presently a dynamic situation due to the interaction with Odalys. Please do not assume you are safe from this hurricane where you are. Prepare for Category 3 conditions if you are on the Sea of Cortez from between La Paz and Loreto north. Those folks get to wait a week for their hurricane, Rachel.

Report for Jimena and Odile provided for research for those interested:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132009_Jimena.pdf

Report for Odile: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP152014_Odile.pdf


Oh and PS, La Paz will get hit by a hurricane in just over a week from today. This will be the first time two hurricanes struck Baja in the same season I believe.