Update 5pm

Odalys has not influenced Polo though I cannot say that Polo has not influenced Odalys. I will keep an eye on Odalys as well as the next system which is forming now.

Polo does appear to be on a trajectory to take it slightly to the right of the NHC forecast, which by my observations puts the eye just north of Loreto. But this is an estimate. Unfortunately where exactly it will go cannot be known for about 12-24 hours.

Keep an eye out and do not assume you are safe. Remember that the NHC forecasts for hurricanes that have hit Baja's populated areas were almost ALWAYS forecast to go safely to the left. There is also a great deal of uncertainty on this track because it curves.

.......

Odalys has begun to be influenced by Polo and appears to be defying the steering forces driving the predicted pathway. From what I see now, and this is VERY preliminary, it is entirely possible Odalys could also hit the Baja peninsula, and if so, it would be north somewhere between Bahia Los Angeles and San Felipe. Again, this is preliminary and I note it because people are sheltering from Polo there and we are considering sailing north into the open sea to avoid the winds. If you have done so please keep an eye on things over the next 12 hours or so.

Polo does seem to be following the forecast track though just a hair to the right. Interaction with Odalys will change this, though only slightly given Polo is presently much stronger and is under less sheering forces.

The entire Sea of Cortez remains under threat, not only from this storm, but from the one developing off the Gulf of Tehonopec. This one could also affect the Baja peninsula and I will be watching it.

Be aware of the wind directions expected from the hurricane(s) and plan for the directions they will come from. If you find yourself in the path, remember that the most dangerous thing about a hurricane is the eyewall. As I like to tell it, a hurricane is like holding your hand out the window as you accelerate to say 130mph. As you hold your hand, it gets harder to do but you can still hold it there, especially if you turn it flat to the wind. But now imagine driving 130mph and sticking your hand out the window as fast as you can. You would LOSE YOUR ARM! That's because the forces are violent. Slowly built up forces allow for natural flexibility of all materials, but a sudden force does not allow time for that give and things break. A mast could withstand 130mph winds, but NOT a sudden gust of 130mph.

Cyclones in the northern hemisphere rotate counter-clockwise. The winds are therefore easy to predict relative to where the storm goes. In this case, for places north of the storm, as it crosses baja, the winds will start from the northwest, then quickly strengthen and move to the north and northwest, where they will be strongest and remain so until the eye crosses into the Sea of Cortez. After it passes, winds will shift to the east and eventually southeast then finally towards the storm.

Good luck out there.