02:50: We are starting to see the first winds gusty winds from the south that are buffeted and strengthened by their movement along the hillsides of the shore of baja. Once these winds move out to see we will see waves and wind from the southeast and then east. For the moment it appears we will be getting very mild conditions here. I imagine the same is not true for San Bruno and especially Mulege which just had a fire and now will be experiencing flooding from both rain and the storm surge.

The storm will reform and restrengthen before it heads to Guaymas.

Interestingly, I just looked at the NHC forecast. They made no note of the splitting of the eye, the weakening over land, nor the fact that the eye is reforming between Mulege and San Bruno and headed more to the right of their track, meaning Guaymas is likely to miss the eye. The NHC does a poor job of this because they are in Florida and they operate under ego, rather than intelligence. They are not trying to keep you safe, they are trying to be right. My efforts here add intelligence to their forecasts and challenges their ego-based methods with human-based intelligence.

Remember this when trusting AI.


02:30 Sep 28: Polo did not turn right, but the top of Polo did. The top of Polo went just north of Loreto, the bottom just north of Mulege. It is now reorganizing, with the remaining rotation reestablishing itself right as the eye touches the Sea of Cortez. We are in Santa Rosalia the eye is on the Sea of Cortez, and you cannot tell. There are no signs of a hurricane here.

However; the storm is reforming the Sea of Cortez is warmer than the Pacific, and despite the speed at which it is now moving, Polo will restrengthen and give Guaymas something to remember.

We are starting to see signs of a hurricane here, I guess. Its raining. No wind with it, and its light rain.

Polo should be giving us wind and waves soon, we shall see how much it reorganizes.



Update 22:00: Polo turned right, hard right, and appears to now be headed towards Loreto. In examining satellite imagery, it appears that the sea surface temperature in combination with the land caused Polo to steer to the right and sharply so. It remains to be seen if this momentum will continue, but it does appear like the storm is moving well to the right of the forecast track. Regardless, the turn was violent which will likely distort the eye and leave a residual wind field to the northwest of the storm, meaning places like Santa Rosalia could still see tropical storm force winds even if the storm passes just north of Loreto as it seems like it will.

The best news is that the strength of the system has diminished signficantly and it appears that it will no longer head to Guaymas. It will however wreak havoc on the aquaculture in southern Sonora and northern Jalisco.

This is of course preliminary and I will do my best to update this blog. However; I am quite tired and need sleep. If the storm does move south we will likely not experience anything more than we already have. Once again, for me, another hurricane Nothingburger.




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Update 19:30: Odalys is influencing Polo again, pulling it slightly left (as in closer to us) and also tearing it apart. Odalys is also reforming and may very well hit Baja, likely near La Paz.

It is very likely Polo will restrengthen and organize once it cosses the Baja peninsula and deliver a serious blow to Guaymas/Enpalme. They are already experiencing flooding from the rains. Worse is that the storm will be arriving at Guaymas during high tide, meaning flooding wil be rampant.

I have also seen that Mulege, nearly directly in the path of Polo, had a fire today, as if preparing for a hurricane wasn't enough work they literally had to put out fires too.

Also, a waterspout was spotted in Guaymas which confirms my earlier assessment that these small storms are becoming quite a danger to be considered.

Be safe out there.

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Odalys has stopped influencing Polo and it is steering to the right again, though I cannot yet tell how much. It looks like the eye will scrape Cabo San Lazaro and then cross into the Sea of Cortez around the southern tip of Bahia Conception, perhaps Santispac. Of course my hope is that it continues to turn right by way of the ridge which is driving the motion of the tropical storm it hosts.

Polo is weakening slightly and I believe has started eyewall replacement. The motion has accelerated and Polo is being stretched by this motion, a factor which plays heavy into how the winds manifest on the other side of the mountains. My guess is it will be gusty. We are in Santa Rosalia which is in close proximity to hills below the mountains. We can count on concentration of winds on the surface as they blow across the shore and along the hills, which will create buffeting and therefore gusty conditions.

I wanted to mention that Bahia Los Angeles, where many people including several from this marina went to seek shelter, is experiencing thunderstorms. The wiser choice would have been about 2/3rds of the way up.

Please do not mistake my abilities in this area. AI is programmed to make you believe it is human. I learned how to see the future so I can protect myself from it. It's not important that I am right or wrong about where the storm goes. It's important that you understand what is possible and that you should have your mind on preparedness.